October 27, 2025 – While last week’s economic news points to ongoing uncertainty—cooling inflation, rising jobless claims, and homeowners grappling with insurance costs—the outlook is a mixed bag but offers a glimpse of light. Most sellers continue to find success and satisfaction working with agents as rates remain near recent low, and recession fears among CEOs remain low. Even as confidence dips and challenges persist, moderating inflation and the promise of AI-driven transformation offer reasons to believe that gradual improvement is possible.

Delayed CPI report shows cooler-than-expected inflation: Inflation on consumer goods/services came in softer than economists expected, as the delayed September Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered an increase of 0.31% on a monthly basis and a jump of 3% when compared to 12 months ago. Both figures came in below consensus expectations, despite the annual price hike rising at the fastest pace since January. A surge of 4% in gasoline price provided upward pressure on the headline inflation number, but moderating growth in food inflation kept the overall price increase from flaring up last month. Excluding food and energy, the core CPI of 0.2% monthly gain and an annual rate of 3% also came in less than forecast. Services’ inflation showing signs of moderation was a factor that alleviated some of the upward pressure on prices. The slowdown was led by shelter costs, which rose just 0.2% from August and were up 3.6% from a year ago. Used vehicle prices also pulled back by 0.4% on a monthly basis but remained 5.1% higher than the same time last year. With inflation rising but at a pace slower than anticipated, the Fed should cut rate by 25 bps in its upcoming meeting. As the government shutdown continues, the next round of data will not be available until December, but hopefully it will be in time for the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.

CEO confidence weakens slightly in Q4: Corporate leaders remain cautious at the start of Q4 as their confidence ticked down in the latest survey, according to the Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence. The index is a barometer of the health of the U.S. economy from the view of chief executives in the nation. CEO confidence dipped slightly in Q4, with the index falling one point to 48 from 49 in Q3. Their assessment of the economy turned slightly more negative, as 37% of them said economic conditions in the U.S. were worse than six months ago, an increase from 34% in Q3. More CEOs also believed the short-term economic outlook could get worse, as 38% expected economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, a solid jump from 30% in Q3. While nearly two-thirds (64%) of the CEOs anticipated a mild economic slowdown with slightly increased inflation pressure over the next 12-18 months, only a handful (4%) expected a recession. In fact, a smaller share of them (29%) in Q4 planned to reduce their workforce over the next 12 months, a decline from 34% reported in Q3. Most of them (81%), however, expected AI to fundamentally change 50% or more of job roles in their organization within the next five years.

One in five homeowners believe they are underinsured: With wildfires and other natural disasters likely to create more damages in the years to come, many homeowners are feeling “underinsured,” according to a recent study by Kin Insurance. With cost of homeowners insurance remaining on the rise, one out of five (18%) homeowners in the U.S. feel that their current policy does not provide enough to fully cover the replacement of their home in the event of a loss. Despite having the sense of being “underinsured,” more than one-third (38%) of them don’t know how to determine if they have enough coverage. Some of them have taken steps to make their insurance more affordable by increasing their deductible (22%), switching providers (17%), removing optional coverages (10%), and reducing total coverage limit (9%), but a quarter (25%) of homeowners have not done anything to lower their insurance cost. Three out of five (59%) could not afford a deductible payment of $5,000 or more if their house was seriously damaged today. The increase in homeowner insurance costs is also taking a toll on the housing market, as nearly one-third of homeowners said they would not buy a new home because of the rising trend.

Homeowners still prefer selling homes with an agent: Selling a home without a real estate professional is overwhelming and could lead to many unforeseen challenges. Results from a survey conducted by Clever Offers indicate that sellers who opted to sell without an agent are usually less satisfied. In fact, nearly nine out of ten (86%) sellers who used an agent are happier with their selling method than those who did not (71%). Sellers who used an agent received an average profit of $138,477 from their home sale, about $6,255 more than those who did not use an agent. More than eight out of ten (85%) who used an agent are satisfied with their profit, compared to 75% of those who did not use one. With many online tools available to homeowners nowadays, sellers have options when it comes to selling their properties. However, REALTORS® (87%) remain the most trusted way to sell a home, while cash-buying companies (40%) are the least trusted. More than a third (36%) of non-agent-represented sellers, indeed, wish they had used an agent.

Jobless claims rise as shutdown continues: Estimates from Citigroup, Nationwide, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan suggest that U.S. jobless claims rose last week, with more Americans filing for unemployment and continued claims increasing in early October, indicating a softer labor market. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, claims data was not available for Tennessee, Massachusetts, and Colorado, but other states continue to submit claim figures to the Labor Department. Initial claims rose to an estimated 232k for the week ending October 18, with similar figures reported by major banks. Continuing claims climbed to 1.942M for the week ending October 11 from 1.928M reported in the week prior, Citigroup estimated. Economists attribute the increase primarily to subdued holiday hiring and the ongoing government shutdown.

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